Who would have believed we would get the quinella of Chloe seeking to understand how the tax package would be funded (i had previously thought that side of the cashflow statement was unknown and irrelevant to the Greens), and Dr Woods showing a newfound level of deep affection for fossil fuels and expressing concern we may not have sufficient stockpiles of a range of compounds that, over time, her Government sought to totally phase out.
I know Saturday Night Live has just debuted in the UK - today I felt like I was watching Tuesday Afternoon Live here.
You can't 'rake in' GST on a commodity that will experience significant price rises, and which may possibly be rationed (hopefully not).
While Hipkins isn't in power, he is the leader of the main party in opposition. Have a read of The Halflings View's latest post on Hipkins' dearth of ideas and cynical polity. Chris Trotter also has a recent post about him too, although it is behind a paywall.
You forget that that commodity is essential for everything in Aotearoa because the government stopped investing in green economy and energy? Transport of food,materials, in construction ( whatever is left of it as we all know the industry has been decimated by cuts) farmers ,all depend of this commodity. I never heard of the views you mentioned and don't read someone opinions. Read about international research and what all countries were and are doing to stop dependence on fossil fuel . Labour at last election had toghether with Greens the best policies. I don't do ideology and no one should in such situations. And division and dirty politics .
Of course Government is getting higher tax from everything : petrol price taxes increased, petrol prices increased resulting in all other prices increase and higher taxes for government. Like food for example. Public transport prices have increased before, even garbage collection prices will increase. Ani of course is wring or has proven not to understand how important for Aotearoa petrol prices are. It seems her friendship with Hipkins ex us clouding her views or understanding of how important the situation is. Hipkins may not be perfect, I don't agree with his comment first refusing to put up ideas but I think he knew whatever Labour or Greens are proposing would be ignored. Look at Winston Peters latest: a Greens policy re splitijg gentailers waiting to be picked up for discussion since 2024 and he is announcing as his own!
Whilst I concur with your praise (for targeted restraint compared to what that fat twat Robertson did), I’d rather Willis & Luxflakes cut spending to fund said relief. Shit, cut the cultural grift and some public servants (for starters, anyone employed in a ‘cultural’ role - I’m sensing a trend here…) and we could easily afford to reduce taxes (especially for first $30k or so). I’ve no issue paying more for gas short term if it helps Trump & Bibi help free the Iranian folk, but am pretty sure we’re being gouged. Media dramas also ain’t helping, it is a long way from genuine crisis at this stage. Adjusted for inflation, oil would have to hit $200+ a barrel to match the price in 2008. Even 2022 was significantly higher.
National need to remind voters the Robertson spray gun resulted in 7.2% Inflation and our Reserve Bank crashing the economy to get it back under control. House prices down 20% from sugar rush highs, negative equity and an economic hangover that persists today.
Hmm, not true. Your comment showing ignorance and not understanding of the global crises caused by pandemic shutting down economies and the war in Ukraine and Russia sanctions resulting in oil prices hike and shipping costs to go to 800% higher. We import everything: didn't yiu check what other countries inflation was and why? USA 9%, UK 8.4%, Australia same as ours. In fact Robertson saved the economy, sav3d jobs as we've all seen the unemployment during Labour was 3.2% not 6% or h8gher if yiu add the 240000 who left.
Because maybe you need to read Treasury, OECD, PREFU reports from 2023, Moody's tripple A ratings and S&P AA plus ratings for our economy during Labour times and check ( Google it as info is available) debt, unemployment ( first $71 billion dollars and second 3.3% ). Compare to what's going on now. I am an accountant and I deal in stats and numbers.
If your basic premise is that our current negative ratings outlook due to increased debt has nothing at all to do with Grant Robertson then its a fairly unique perspective.
I have a degree in economics and finance. I'll leave you to believe what you will.
To your "slim chance", I would like to add "fear". At the moment fuel prices are inconvenient and uncomfortable but for most are not an existential crisis as COVID was billed to be. Without that fear you won't get the blind obedience that COVID got.
On the fear note, my fear is how quickly polies have turned to lock downs / stay at home etc. to manage the shortage. Have stay at home orders become so accepted?
Fear based on facts: better to take precautions and be safe. Covid was a pandemic which killed tens of milions in horrible ways. I am happy Aotearoa NZ government at the time listened as we've seen on Covid report( 20 million dollars spent) to the best national and international advises. Putting emphasis on people ! Van Velden stated on NY Times "that was a mistake"! Look at Cuba what not having petrol means. We are lucky as our electricity comes from renewable sources generally, the mistake this coalition government made was to stop all investment in upgrades and expansion and repealing the Fast Tracked approvals for wind turbines farms.
Working from home would destroy the small businesses in Wellington, which are just starting to recover after Labour's lockdowns and 'working from home'. As it is, local bus companies are looking to lessen busses as 31,000 people commute into the city each week. Still too many people working from home. I do not need assistance in paying for petrol - targeting it is the most sensible solution.
I wonder with high petrol costs if forced to drive into CBD how many would bring a sandwich from home ? Plus if working from home businesses in neighbourhood would benefit. Like it did happened in Wellington. Maybe buildings owners could help businesses by reducing rents? Or business owners could go on line like many adapted during Covid .
Ani, you quite correctly note Jones and his blaming Woods for the closure of our refinery.
Left unsaid is the fact that when Peters and Jones received the baubles of office in Ardern’s cabinet they supported the “ Captains Call “ to destroy our $ Billion oil and gas exploration industry, costing not only resilience opportunity but thousands of high paying jobs.
They never implemented the “ agree to disagree “ clause.
To me they are the most hypocritical and untrustworthy MP’s EVER !
NEVER FORGET - NEVER FORGIVE.
Hipkins is typical of lazy Labour, no constructive ideas , no policies on fuel independence, zero leadership and vainly hoping no one notices.
What a buggers muddle we are in when Luxon is not only fighting the far left fruit loops in opposition but also a lying, hypocritical and odious MSM propped up by our hard earned taxes.
Hmm Dame Jacinda stopped NEW permits. Existing ones are still available but withno oil found..even the current government 200 million dollars bribe no one came to start drill baby drill.
Jones was standing to one side of Ardern when she made the announcement re closing down oil and gas exploration : it was obvious from the look on his face that he had not idea this announcement was coming. It was either simply Ardern's decision - cabinet not involved, as she tended to do - or it was purely Labour party call.
Key&Seymour government issues 40 plus exploration permits: STILL AVAILABLE NOW! Woods issued onland and few offshore permits too. No oil in viable quantities was found . That's why no one is coming to drill baby drill . We are not Abu Dhabi! People need to educate themselves not gulibly believe everything a politician or their supporters are lying.
I suggest that Chris Hipkins is hoping to create an impression that it’s a card game & he desperately hoping to bluff his opponents into believing he’s holding four aces & the joker, when in fact the Labour Party are bereft of anyone capable of dealing a hand. And guess what, it works for them, too often.
Wrong and misinformed: permits issued by Key&Seymour government are still available, plus Woods issued more for on land and around existing wells. I can't believe people can't understand facts : exploration companies left because NO VIABLE OIL WAS FOUND! billion dollars oil industry who fyeducation paid 3% royalties when Norway gets 78% made billions for Shell who left when oil was not found. Labour had policies re oil dependence: subsidies for solar panels and batteries. Fast tracked approvals for solar panels and batteries and wind turbines farms. Read them.
There are apparently around 140,000 families receiving some form of working for families tax credit...no wonder we'll never rid this country of it's love affair with socialism.
Ani, you have offered a well thought out non-partisan analysis of the immediate issues. Great to see! Of course the bigger issue is the whole matter of long term oil supply. Short term subsidies, tax breaks, price signals and so on won't matter a jot when oil flow stops because all the stocks been used and no more arrives.
correct, the only real moves the government has is to try prioritise where the limited stocks go, reduce demand (perhaps by asking people to only use cars if they really have to or voluntarily wfh), and by mitigating against some of the impact by softening the blow on those most unable to weather the storm.
I do not think making public transport free is a good idea for several reasons.
Start with cost. In Auckland, fare revenue is roughly in the hundreds of millions a year and that’s after heavy subsidies. Public transport is already not paid for by in full by users it’s paid for by a mix of taxpayers and ratepayers.
A rough estimate of loss in revenue nationwide would be around $250m for those three months. We are broke. We cannot afford this kind of thing especially when it doesn’t address the problem.
People don’t have to add public transport costs on top of driving in any case. They switch.
If you move from driving to public transport you are not buying petrol anymore nor paying for parking (often the most painful cost in cities). Instead, you’re paying an already subsidised fare.
So people who switch aren’t “out of pocket.” They’re usually better off already.
Which is why making it free is not a smart move. We would be subsidising people who are already using public transport anyway, spending hundreds of millions for maybe a short-term bump in usage, and failing to target the people who can’t switch (which is a huge number outside major centres).
So what’s the actual policy logic here? What do you think this action would achieve? What do you want it to achieve?
Ani, Hipkins is spot on: Coalition government is racking in huge taxes money . Food,electricity prices are up showing n9n tradeable inflation is higher than before. Oligopolistic approach of price gauging is evident: look at the huge profits all electricity companies made: huge government profits. So by giving WWF $50 dollars wouldn't help too much,especially as young,not marries or older single working people do not get anything. Willis and this coalition have been again proven their incompetence. Free public transport, working from home,reduce speed limit( well known acceleration uses more fuel) would help. Greens policies are better. This government allows oligopolies to do whatever they want as higher prices result in higher GSTax.
It was quite the scene at Question Time today.
Who would have believed we would get the quinella of Chloe seeking to understand how the tax package would be funded (i had previously thought that side of the cashflow statement was unknown and irrelevant to the Greens), and Dr Woods showing a newfound level of deep affection for fossil fuels and expressing concern we may not have sufficient stockpiles of a range of compounds that, over time, her Government sought to totally phase out.
I know Saturday Night Live has just debuted in the UK - today I felt like I was watching Tuesday Afternoon Live here.
Ani, this is my take on it precisely, but much better written. Thanks, yet again.
Thanks for the insight. We will need more balanced commentary like this if we ever want to gain trust in the media back.
Chris Hipkins is an uninspiring, insipid, weasel. If he cared about New Zealand and its people, he would leave politics and the country.
HIPKINS isn't in power. But his comment is spot on. Logic.
You can't 'rake in' GST on a commodity that will experience significant price rises, and which may possibly be rationed (hopefully not).
While Hipkins isn't in power, he is the leader of the main party in opposition. Have a read of The Halflings View's latest post on Hipkins' dearth of ideas and cynical polity. Chris Trotter also has a recent post about him too, although it is behind a paywall.
You forget that that commodity is essential for everything in Aotearoa because the government stopped investing in green economy and energy? Transport of food,materials, in construction ( whatever is left of it as we all know the industry has been decimated by cuts) farmers ,all depend of this commodity. I never heard of the views you mentioned and don't read someone opinions. Read about international research and what all countries were and are doing to stop dependence on fossil fuel . Labour at last election had toghether with Greens the best policies. I don't do ideology and no one should in such situations. And division and dirty politics .
His suggestion that the government is "raking it in" isn't at all logical as Ani has clearly pointed out.
Of course Government is getting higher tax from everything : petrol price taxes increased, petrol prices increased resulting in all other prices increase and higher taxes for government. Like food for example. Public transport prices have increased before, even garbage collection prices will increase. Ani of course is wring or has proven not to understand how important for Aotearoa petrol prices are. It seems her friendship with Hipkins ex us clouding her views or understanding of how important the situation is. Hipkins may not be perfect, I don't agree with his comment first refusing to put up ideas but I think he knew whatever Labour or Greens are proposing would be ignored. Look at Winston Peters latest: a Greens policy re splitijg gentailers waiting to be picked up for discussion since 2024 and he is announcing as his own!
No apology needed, Ani. Your article is clear, easy to follow, and gets the message across in spades!
Whilst I concur with your praise (for targeted restraint compared to what that fat twat Robertson did), I’d rather Willis & Luxflakes cut spending to fund said relief. Shit, cut the cultural grift and some public servants (for starters, anyone employed in a ‘cultural’ role - I’m sensing a trend here…) and we could easily afford to reduce taxes (especially for first $30k or so). I’ve no issue paying more for gas short term if it helps Trump & Bibi help free the Iranian folk, but am pretty sure we’re being gouged. Media dramas also ain’t helping, it is a long way from genuine crisis at this stage. Adjusted for inflation, oil would have to hit $200+ a barrel to match the price in 2008. Even 2022 was significantly higher.
Thanks Ani. You have made a difficult subject a bit more understandable. We need cool heads and sensible people in power more than ever.
National need to remind voters the Robertson spray gun resulted in 7.2% Inflation and our Reserve Bank crashing the economy to get it back under control. House prices down 20% from sugar rush highs, negative equity and an economic hangover that persists today.
Hmm, not true. Your comment showing ignorance and not understanding of the global crises caused by pandemic shutting down economies and the war in Ukraine and Russia sanctions resulting in oil prices hike and shipping costs to go to 800% higher. We import everything: didn't yiu check what other countries inflation was and why? USA 9%, UK 8.4%, Australia same as ours. In fact Robertson saved the economy, sav3d jobs as we've all seen the unemployment during Labour was 3.2% not 6% or h8gher if yiu add the 240000 who left.
"Robertson saved the economy" is a sentence I had not envisaged ever laying my eyes on.
Because maybe you need to read Treasury, OECD, PREFU reports from 2023, Moody's tripple A ratings and S&P AA plus ratings for our economy during Labour times and check ( Google it as info is available) debt, unemployment ( first $71 billion dollars and second 3.3% ). Compare to what's going on now. I am an accountant and I deal in stats and numbers.
If your basic premise is that our current negative ratings outlook due to increased debt has nothing at all to do with Grant Robertson then its a fairly unique perspective.
I have a degree in economics and finance. I'll leave you to believe what you will.
To your "slim chance", I would like to add "fear". At the moment fuel prices are inconvenient and uncomfortable but for most are not an existential crisis as COVID was billed to be. Without that fear you won't get the blind obedience that COVID got.
On the fear note, my fear is how quickly polies have turned to lock downs / stay at home etc. to manage the shortage. Have stay at home orders become so accepted?
Fear based on facts: better to take precautions and be safe. Covid was a pandemic which killed tens of milions in horrible ways. I am happy Aotearoa NZ government at the time listened as we've seen on Covid report( 20 million dollars spent) to the best national and international advises. Putting emphasis on people ! Van Velden stated on NY Times "that was a mistake"! Look at Cuba what not having petrol means. We are lucky as our electricity comes from renewable sources generally, the mistake this coalition government made was to stop all investment in upgrades and expansion and repealing the Fast Tracked approvals for wind turbines farms.
Perhaps you should watch lord monktons lecture on the economics of wind turbines.
I prefer to look at results. And output.
Working from home would destroy the small businesses in Wellington, which are just starting to recover after Labour's lockdowns and 'working from home'. As it is, local bus companies are looking to lessen busses as 31,000 people commute into the city each week. Still too many people working from home. I do not need assistance in paying for petrol - targeting it is the most sensible solution.
What a nonsense. Working from home was proven and it us in fact now to be more productive and better. With a 4 days working week.
Not better for the businesses in the CBDs who had relied on workers coming into the offices.
I wonder with high petrol costs if forced to drive into CBD how many would bring a sandwich from home ? Plus if working from home businesses in neighbourhood would benefit. Like it did happened in Wellington. Maybe buildings owners could help businesses by reducing rents? Or business owners could go on line like many adapted during Covid .
Ani, you quite correctly note Jones and his blaming Woods for the closure of our refinery.
Left unsaid is the fact that when Peters and Jones received the baubles of office in Ardern’s cabinet they supported the “ Captains Call “ to destroy our $ Billion oil and gas exploration industry, costing not only resilience opportunity but thousands of high paying jobs.
They never implemented the “ agree to disagree “ clause.
To me they are the most hypocritical and untrustworthy MP’s EVER !
NEVER FORGET - NEVER FORGIVE.
Hipkins is typical of lazy Labour, no constructive ideas , no policies on fuel independence, zero leadership and vainly hoping no one notices.
What a buggers muddle we are in when Luxon is not only fighting the far left fruit loops in opposition but also a lying, hypocritical and odious MSM propped up by our hard earned taxes.
What an appalling joke !
Yeah, I like to remind NZF supporters that Peters and Jones stood next to Adern when she had her nuclear free moment. People have short memories.
True, though Jones is likely to hold the record for "Most Visible Eye Roll at a Policy Announcement" for a considerable time yet.
Hmm Dame Jacinda stopped NEW permits. Existing ones are still available but withno oil found..even the current government 200 million dollars bribe no one came to start drill baby drill.
Jones was standing to one side of Ardern when she made the announcement re closing down oil and gas exploration : it was obvious from the look on his face that he had not idea this announcement was coming. It was either simply Ardern's decision - cabinet not involved, as she tended to do - or it was purely Labour party call.
Followed by full cabinet approval.
Key&Seymour government issues 40 plus exploration permits: STILL AVAILABLE NOW! Woods issued onland and few offshore permits too. No oil in viable quantities was found . That's why no one is coming to drill baby drill . We are not Abu Dhabi! People need to educate themselves not gulibly believe everything a politician or their supporters are lying.
I suggest that Chris Hipkins is hoping to create an impression that it’s a card game & he desperately hoping to bluff his opponents into believing he’s holding four aces & the joker, when in fact the Labour Party are bereft of anyone capable of dealing a hand. And guess what, it works for them, too often.
Wrong and misinformed: permits issued by Key&Seymour government are still available, plus Woods issued more for on land and around existing wells. I can't believe people can't understand facts : exploration companies left because NO VIABLE OIL WAS FOUND! billion dollars oil industry who fyeducation paid 3% royalties when Norway gets 78% made billions for Shell who left when oil was not found. Labour had policies re oil dependence: subsidies for solar panels and batteries. Fast tracked approvals for solar panels and batteries and wind turbines farms. Read them.
Please don’t apologise. The quality of the writing was excellent.
There are apparently around 140,000 families receiving some form of working for families tax credit...no wonder we'll never rid this country of it's love affair with socialism.
Thank you Ani, clear concise and right on the money.
Ani, you have offered a well thought out non-partisan analysis of the immediate issues. Great to see! Of course the bigger issue is the whole matter of long term oil supply. Short term subsidies, tax breaks, price signals and so on won't matter a jot when oil flow stops because all the stocks been used and no more arrives.
correct, the only real moves the government has is to try prioritise where the limited stocks go, reduce demand (perhaps by asking people to only use cars if they really have to or voluntarily wfh), and by mitigating against some of the impact by softening the blow on those most unable to weather the storm.
I do not think making public transport free is a good idea for several reasons.
Start with cost. In Auckland, fare revenue is roughly in the hundreds of millions a year and that’s after heavy subsidies. Public transport is already not paid for by in full by users it’s paid for by a mix of taxpayers and ratepayers.
A rough estimate of loss in revenue nationwide would be around $250m for those three months. We are broke. We cannot afford this kind of thing especially when it doesn’t address the problem.
People don’t have to add public transport costs on top of driving in any case. They switch.
If you move from driving to public transport you are not buying petrol anymore nor paying for parking (often the most painful cost in cities). Instead, you’re paying an already subsidised fare.
So people who switch aren’t “out of pocket.” They’re usually better off already.
Which is why making it free is not a smart move. We would be subsidising people who are already using public transport anyway, spending hundreds of millions for maybe a short-term bump in usage, and failing to target the people who can’t switch (which is a huge number outside major centres).
So what’s the actual policy logic here? What do you think this action would achieve? What do you want it to achieve?
Ani, Hipkins is spot on: Coalition government is racking in huge taxes money . Food,electricity prices are up showing n9n tradeable inflation is higher than before. Oligopolistic approach of price gauging is evident: look at the huge profits all electricity companies made: huge government profits. So by giving WWF $50 dollars wouldn't help too much,especially as young,not marries or older single working people do not get anything. Willis and this coalition have been again proven their incompetence. Free public transport, working from home,reduce speed limit( well known acceleration uses more fuel) would help. Greens policies are better. This government allows oligopolies to do whatever they want as higher prices result in higher GSTax.
Nailed it Ani. Exactly what I've been arguing too, only better articulated.